Daily depth reference 20080721_ Jarod

"Eastern Mediterranean Union": "French old dream" can ran out of the new heaven and Earth? Eastern Mediterranean: shipping throat + emerging economic circle Eastern Mediterranean region, a very important geographical position. Eastern Mediterranean West 4000 km sea area 250 million square kilometers. Eastern Mediterranean to the North is the European continent, the African continent, South East Asia and the Middle East. From Western Europe to the Indian Ocean, through the Strait of Gibraltar, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Suez Canal, the Red Sea this route to become the world's busiest sea transport. According to statistics, every day in the Eastern Mediterranean Cruise of the vessel reached more than 2000, enter the total quantity of oil in Western Europe by 85 per cent are transported through the channel. Eastern Mediterranean in the economic, political and military has a very important strategic position. For a long time, the Eastern Mediterranean to become powers a must. From World War II, the United States has been the sixth fleet to Eastern Mediterranean, from the number of ships, the Eastern Mediterranean today has become a Western military powers warships agglomeration density maximum sea area. While the globalization of economic development in the spring tide, Eastern Mediterranean region, in particular the previous development slower on the South Eastern Mediterranean region, Africa has become an emerging investment hotspots destination. " Eastern Mediterranean Union" 13 July in Paris from Eastern Mediterranean Summit declared a regional cooperation new entities �� "the establishment of the Eastern Mediterranean Union", 43 countries, heads of State or leaders attended. "Adm", this covers 43 countries nearly 800 million inhabitants of the new regional organization, was in France President Sarkozy's efforts to set up. It will not be a globalization and regional integration in a new paradigm for the resolution of regional issues play a key role? or is it just France attempted to restore the "springboard" French glory? people but also in its future operations in the search for the answer. "Adm" this abbreviation, the future may and the EU, Las, the African Union, ASEAN, etc., as regular headlines international political vocabulary. In addition to the EU-27 countries, "adm" current other Member States including Monaco, Turkey, Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, Montenegro, six non-EU European countries, the Eastern Mediterranean on the East coast of the Middle East, Israel, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan, Qatar 6 countries and Eastern Mediterranean coast of Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia 4 North Africa countries. The "Barcelona process" extension has been reported, the newly established "adm" will implement the all members involved in the management operating system, with Northern and southern two co-chairs, President Sarkozy respectively by France and Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak, will be at the EU Summit and the remaining Member States Summit in the rotation. In addition, the "adm" will be held every two years, the Summit every year Foreign Ministers ' meeting, and set up a secretariat. Although "adm" originally conceived by President Sarkozy proposes to France, but in fact, as early as 1995, the EU has been taking in the Eastern Mediterranean region to expand EU influence for the purpose of the "Southern strategy", developed the so-called "Barcelona process", in 2010, the establishment of a broader free trade zone. But for various reasons, the "Barcelona process" in name only. The "adm", can also be seen as the "Barcelona process" extension and a fresh start. New old economic circle collision with analysts, relative to the ageing of the European economy, "adm" of other countries and regions such as Turkey, Israel and North African countries, is a vibrant emerging economic circle, new old economic circle of interwoven collision can bring new for Europe's economic vitality, answer it. According to the authority of the West, the Economic Journal statistics from the turn of the century, from the north shore of the Eastern Mediterranean Morocco until the southeast coast of Turkey, this area has attracted up to 590 billion u.s. dollars of foreign direct investment, second only to the same period of the world's fastest economic growth in China (690 million), far exceeding the Latin American economic circle of 25 billion, these funds invest mainly in financial services, telecommunications, construction, retail, and other services. Investment funds in addition primarily from Europe and all over the world have noticed this emerging economic circle: the United States is here aviation parts; Brazil here investment textiles and agricultural fertilizers; India here development IT products and pharmaceutical products ... Riddled with contradictions and difficulties while "adm" there are many opportunities and possibilities, but here also riddled with contradictions and difficulties. Politically, in addition to the North-South politics, cultural differences, this region was a powder keg: Israel and Palestine have also talked about, and play; Syria and Israel also is in the opposite State. In addition, with the exception of a few in the coastal country truly belong to the Eastern Mediterranean countries, the huge "adm" 43 countries in many disparate. Economically, the North Africa countries of infrastructure and of the European region has a long way to go; in addition, while new economic circle, but the economic circles and trade between States is small, fragile economies. These questions are "adm" can achieve true "regional integration" a big question mark. Analysts noted that the EU should draw on the "Barcelona process" lessons from the failure to help regions lagging behind national building infrastructure, promoting regional trade and economic development, promote regional peace processes. Any ambitious goal must start small. (NFRB) (To return) �� overseas perspective �� face plunging: United States Government, through a series of initiatives to "rescue" 4 degrees out urgent one United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Cox announced that in order to prevent some investment institutions using short sale price manipulation, limits the investors to the premises of the United States "-selling us" and "Fannie Mae" and brokerage stocks of certain acts. This is the beauty of the securities regulatory authorities in last week's newest "spare" measures. In fact, although from October 2007, the highest point of the Dow Jones index from the United States at 14198 fell to 11446 points, but far less than 20%, A share of nearly 60% of the decline, but the United States Government is already "hasty panic panic." The Government has passed a series of initiatives to "rescue". One of the emergency bailout: emergency command limit financial stocks "naked" short selling ": now in Appendix A-related financial institutions, stock trading, any owner or his agent, in the absence of holders of sharesVote, or have already borrowed stock, or signing of stock borrow agreement shall not be selling stock. "Local time on 15 July, the United States Commission (SEC) issued an emergency order. United States Securities and Exchange Commission issued an emergency order, mainly on large financial companies selling certain types of behavior. Emergency measures will require short in selling before first borrowed stock, but also require investors to follow redemption of securities settlement date. This measure will be in July 21, and lasts 30 days. And so-called naked short selling, i.e. command, which is prohibited by the stock-trading pattern refers to the institutional investors can not hold stock, not already borrowed stock or stock borrowing agreements signed, for short selling of stocks. This United States SEC on "the naked short selling" restrictions, direct response is to prevent the use of "naked short selling" to suppress or control the behavior of the stock price. Emergency bailout II: 3000 billion relieving it premises and Fannie Mae as a United States real estate financial system and the real economy is vital for large financial institutions, real estate and Fannie Mae recent crisis, the two companies ' stock prices in the last week near the "peace talks". At this point, the United States Government does not stand idly by, United States Department of the Treasury and the Fed 13 emergency jointly launch of two mortgage Giants Fannie Mae and the beauty of the rescue plan of premises. United States Senate on July 11, approved a total of 30 billion rescue package to help hundreds of thousands of inability to pay monthly reserved property of the buyer, at the same time by strengthening on mortgages, regulatory relief the impact on the property market. 13, the United States has launched a number of forces, Fannie Mae and premises of measures, including the two agencies to provide direct loans and financial support to boost market confidence. Emergency bailout: 800 billion capital injection to the subprime mortgage crisis relief in mid-March, the United States's fifth largest investment bank Bear Stearns was in liquidity crisis had to $ 2 per share price "sale". This is the second mortgage loans in the wake of the surge, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, and other international investment bank after huge write-down, subprime mortgage's "third wave". In fact, each time the Shockwave killed at that time, the Fed-led United States Government intervention on the timely release of the lifeboat. As Bear Stearns events occur before and after a week of time, the fed three times "unconventional" rescue, on the one hand, to inject into the banking system, on the one hand, to help those who are most critical financial institutions out of trouble. �� March 11, 2008, the Fed announced through weekly auctions to the marketplace to inject 2000 billion, at the same time and the European Central Bank and the Central Bank's currency exchange Switzerland. From 27 March onwards, the Fed each week to United States national debt of 20 primary dealer lending period of 28 days of government bonds (in the past, only overnight), in Exchange, the dealer put the appropriate value of MBS securities collateral to the Fed. Thus, the level of dealer (many are Wall Street banks) will be held in the hands of the fluidity of poor MBS asset swap with easier to dispose of the United States national debt, in order to raise cash to ease liquidity pressures. -Financing the rescue of Bear Stearns. 14 March, the Fed once again announced a rare third party financing plan, to recognize the significant deterioration of liquidity "," Bear Stearns 300 billion emergency financing. Monetary Authority for individual financial institutions take relief, in this century has no precedent. �� March 16, the Fed announced that in order to increase market liquidity, the discount rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. Over the past 30 years, the Fed also never announced a key weekend rates. By Convention, the Fed can wait until Tuesday's formal Council lowered the discount rate is announced. Emergency bailout four: Emergency lowering interest rates all the way from 5.25% to 2.25% in addition, the Fed's rescue practice there are frequent interest rate cut, which also appeared in September 2001, for the first time since the availability of emergency interest rate cut. It is reported that last September 18, the Fed announced in June 2003 for the first time since the Fed interest rate cuts, the federal funds interest rate that banks every night offered rate by the then 5.25% first dropped to 4.75%, within a short period of six months thereafter for the fed to high-density continuous several "trots increase run" means the interest rate cuts, 2.25% interest rate. Each time the interest rate on the day, the United States had indeed basically stock market rally, but the next day once again fell, so repeatedly, allowing United States stock eventually obtain basic stable pattern. (GZRB) (back) �� Roundup �� Chinese officials issued strictly no real investment background of foreign exchange inflows into the national development and Reform Commission 18, in its official Web site published a paper called, on the background of the unknown, credit is not up to the requirements or materials incomplete foreign-invested projects, to rigorous review to prevent non-real investment background of foreign currency inflow. China's official position on this is highlighted on the part of foreign-invested projects mismanagement. Chinese official says, some investors to lend to the international capital market volatility, exchange rate policy adjustments to take the false joint venture, set up shell companies, and other ways to direct foreign investment into funds in the name, and the capital surrender purposes, gain unfair advantage in the healthy development of Chinese economy and the balance of potential risks. For this reason, the Chinese official in particular, it should be noted that grasp and control the flow of foreign capital, strict foreign-invested projects with a total investment of capital, the difference between the management of the external debt, to strictly enforce the provisions on external debt management in China. To adhere to the foreign investment projects approved before, then the principle of the establishment of the enterprise, and prevent the establishment of shell companies. Chinese officials also said that for non-compliance of foreign investment projects approved or not complying with the requirements of the project approval documents, have been transferred to immigration in not for construction projects, should be promptly corrected. Serious breaches of the law, may revoke the project approval document and order its stop building. Save the above project, once discovered, will be prohibited to enjoy tax relief for the procurement of equipment and other related policies, their listing or bond applications do not support. (XWHS) (return) of the IMF: inflation is the emerging economies of the "top priority" of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 17, said that emerging economies will have to fight inflation as a "top priority". The drastic increase in developing countries today and tomorrowYears of rising prices. IMF says, many emerging markets have to raise interest rates, the reduction in the government deficit and increase the pace of currency appreciation, to contain inflation risks. IMF outgoing Chief Economist Simon "Johnson said that the Asian economies, particularly in the inflation risk behind the curve. Brazil suppression price pressures initiative praised. IMF expects this year's emerging world of inflation will reach 9.1% next year will be maintained at a high of 7.4%. The IMF also increased on the inflation rate forecast in industrialized countries, but considered that these regional inflation faster this year 3.4% 2.3% next year. In view of the economic situation in the United States in the first half of this year better than expected, the IMF small increases in its annual economic growth forecast. The organization said that in the overall slowdown in global economic growth, the second half of the United States economy could shrink. IMF expects, United States economy shrinking will be concentrated in the last few months of this year, when the rebate of fiscal stimulus effect will gradually disappear. In the current credit crisis, the IMF for economic growth has been higher than the majority of views to Government and Central Bank more pessimistic. (JRSB) (return) �� high-end comments �� Chinese economy may appear "half-hard landing" signs on July 17, China National Bureau of statistics announced the first half of the economic data, the situation as expected, inflation and growth eased back, can be considered as one of China's economy in recent years a significant turning point, begin to reflect the development environment, increasing disadvantage. The data contained in Revelation must study carefully, not to be overlooked. The first half of the economy has two main focus, the GDP growth fell to 10.4%, up down 1.8% over the first quarter of decline in deeper, 2.5%, falling to 10.1%. Obviously, the growth rate of decline has become, and to speed up signs. Quarterly growth rates is particularly steep drop of the concern, which is beyond the scope of the "soft landing", can be said to be "half-hard landing". Another focus is high inflation, CPI 7.9% in the first half, up nearly 5%. As a result of international commodity prices, while the domestic raw materials and energy and the lack of evidence, may and June CPI was brought down to 8%, but failed to verify the price pressure has been stifled, especially when the Government introduced numerous man-made down measures 1 failed to release the pressure. In any case, now that the Chinese economy has been basically ended the first five years of increases and high stage, an inflection point and transferred to the "slow-rise" (slackflation) phase, characterized by significant slowdown in growth, and inflation or high. To understand the root causes of the slowdown, the need to explore changes in the engine of growth. Over the past few years GDP by investment, consumption and net exports three head horse power dynamic, it is very strong. But this year, this basic pattern changes to form three horse become second trend: net exports dropped by shengzhuan appears from dynamic inflection point into resistance. At the same time, investment in the first half of the tension has weakened, investment growth in excess of 2%, an increase of speed 0.4%, but less high inflation is slowing down after actual. Only the Community turnover of the real growth of over 10%, reflecting the consumer still hold strong over the past two years, but slow down significantly when exports and investment, a weakening consumer strength can last? as from domestic and international economic environment, is not optimistic prospects. The first half of the international environment with European and American financial crisis worsened, against China's exports and growth. At the same time, the internal market in particular asset market began to adjust the internal and external, it forms a double-whammy effect of cold. Unfortunately, this is the effect likely to substantially strengthen in the second half of the year. Abroad, the nearest United States two large warning signs: "bedrooms" crisis, and the first quarter of the bank credit recorded record maximum contraction, displays the current economic downturn in Europe and the United pace is likely to accelerate. Internally, the first half of the stock market fell by almost 50%, and that in the world, caused by the negative wealth effect will release in the future. The property has recently appeared in the fall of prices in recent years together, like a display of rare large adjustments or the arrival. The market downturn may hasten the negative equity family and spread to the building, building materials and household goods and other industries, economic implications than the stock market downturn more direct and profound. More serious is that processing export atrophy has led to long, the Pearl River Delta, the collapse of a large number of SMEs, the chain reaction has laid off will appear later. In short, in a number of negative factors in strengthening trend, economic growth and a half by "hard landing" to "hard landing" risk is rising, the growth in the second half of the material will be further reduced. The Government must act decisively to adjust tight macro policies, and to increase insurance 10 as the goal: to know every drop of one percentage point increase, the country will lose $ 200 billion in revenue. At the same time, the insured employment to take precedence over inflation pressure: pressure economy also pressure not present structural inflation, high inflation and high unemployment will appear under the growing discontent brast. The macro decision-making must have advance mental consciousness, and to be flexible, to strain occurring in the first place. (DGBY) (back) �� senior reference �� China to cancel the profits tax? China to cancel or adjust special petroleum proceeds (commonly known as profits tax) of the securities industry to a lot of heated discussions. However, long-term in international oil prices remain high, and not only refinery losses, industry insiders and economists generally agree that the short-term adjustment windfall tax the probability of significant trends. Violence shuizhong pressure oil refining enterprises, Ministry of finance to the end of March 2006 on upstream petroleum mining enterprises special tax proceeds to subsidize the price of oil products by vulnerable groups, such as agriculture and fishing, etc. Over the past year international oil prices, the domestic production of oil prices and growing international oil prices upside down, refinery operating difficulties, the adjustment of profits tax collectors of the message. Reuters reported that CLSA analyst off Wing Lok said: "China after the Olympics may be cancelled for petroleum upstream businesses of profits tax. "In addition, many do not wish attribution of fund managers also said, hear from other channels, or to cancel the profits tax-levying of messages. However, a Chinese oil industry is said to have heard the saying: "imagine, to the mouth of the FAT (windfall tax) and who are willing to discard? even the Ministry of finance, also do not want to get off this huge amount of taxes. "Another profession also pointed out:" I believe that the Ministry of finance will eventually to tax windfall profits tax in place, such as tax, but whether any of the taxes that are levied to a petroleum company, to a sum of money on the downstream benefits. "As far asSpecial petroleum proceeds of tax measures in the sales of domestic crude oil, if the sale price of more than 40 dollars per barrel, the excess of income tax will be prorated. The tax practice five levels in excess of the progressive meter charge monthly, quarterly payment of the levy rate of between 20-40%. International oil prices continued to rise, profits tax has become a heavy burden of petroleum enterprise. Last year, three major oil company PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC windfall profit tax payable by more than 600 million Yuan. It is large and always developing estimates, if tax will profit from the threshold, 40 dollars per barrel increase to us $ 60 per barrel crude oil from petroleum and reduce taxes $ 10.5, this year's net profit was 14% increase. Profits tax for drag-and-oil exploitation of the hind leg guanrong Le Lyon said: "China if long-term tax profits tax on oil exploration enterprise's cash flow cannot be used for prospecting, long-term will make China's petroleum reserves declined to rely on Africa and other parts of the portal, the national energy security posed a threat. "He said, in the sea of oil and oil exploration in the first quarter of the costs has been reduced by 30%, only adjust the profits tax in order to free the enterprise's cash flow, increase investment in exploration. I believe profits tax threshold will be increased by BOC International Research Department Vice President white ductile also considers that the decision to charge exorbitant profits tax, international oil prices per barrel just $ 70-80, the recent oil price rose by more than 140 dollars per barrel the threshold is scheduled for 40 $, is unrealistic. "Standing in the market point of view, of course, it is hoped that the Government will cancel the profits tax, do not suppress the enterprise profit. You see, A unit of petroleum has been hamstrung by many investors, "he said. Chinese do not have to cancel the profits tax conditions however, China's International Finance Corporation Chief Economist jiming HA, "I believe that countries in the short term does not cancel the profits tax, because international oil prices continue to rise, the refinery's gross margin continues to worsen, countries from oil producers in the profits tax, part into downstream-refining enterprises income tax, to cancel it, be sure to wait in oil prices, oil refining enterprises is no longer a loss. "He believes that this year's snowstorm, have taken place in China earthquake and other natural disasters, economic growth will slow down the State finances certain pressure, thus adjusting the windfall tax opportunities. He believed that when oil prices soared to $ 150 per barrel, China is likely to further increase in oil prices. (DFCW) (back) �� hotspots direct �� times by storm in the second wave is coming after the United States Government help save Bear Stearns Investment Bank JP Morgan, within four months from the United States Government, then a heavy hands, take command by Paulson, and Manpower, United States Department of Treasury, the fed and the SEC to take joint action to save the United States the biggest two housing mortgage finance (Fannie Mae and premises-us). United States Government focus on interventions, will give a certain negative impact on the market. United States Government's high-profile initiatives, once again shows that the United States has not mitigated by storm, the second wave may has arrived. Reading as follows: first, to Washington on two major mortgage agencies, joint rescue operation, broad, strategic efforts to greater diversity. Apparently the Government rescue of good, but the side view that Government efforts at last, the market has been fulfilled or overdrawn investors in Washington and the policy of good faith, but increases the time you press the deepening financial crisis. For example: 1, US Treasury Department will improve the "two-room" from the Federal Government obtained credit, each institution to borrow up to $ 22.5 million. If necessary, the Government will buy the "two-room" co. or one of the shares. 2, the Fed authorized "two-room" to avail themselves of discount window borrowing emergency, any loans to Government and agency bonds as collateral. At the same time in the development of the "two-room" capital requirements and financial safety and soundness standards play a role of "consultation." 3, the SEC stated that will focus on the investigation of deliberate disinformation, or take the market panic manipulated stock prices triggered by the event. So heavy and hard drugs, show Washington seems to have the "tricks". Secondly, the "Fannie Mae and premises-us" is the United States the biggest two housing mortgage loan company, involving thousands of families and numerous financial institutions (CDO kidnapping). Once the "two-room" bankruptcy, would seriously endanger the entire US financial system and security. A large number of holders of the "two-room" bonds of United States local small and medium-sized banks and financial institutions in Europe and Asia are suffering, faced with a huge debts or closed down. This is the Washington full save "two-room" motivation. Since last August by turmoil, the global has created up to 9450 billion (potential losses have been trillion), surpassing previous financial crises in the past. Visible, according to the financial crisis of the domino effect, the consequences would be unthinkable. Once again, in the global "high oil prices and high grain prices and high inflation," high environment generally formed of trend, if time continued by risk, will result in a weakening of market demand, consumption, money supply tension. And booster sale assets and issuers to raise capital flows, generating further do lower asset prices, causing a chain reaction to market panic time according to the financial crisis into a third shock, the small and medium-sized banks, credit card business and insurance market and the proliferation of the reinsurance market. Therefore, greater financial tsunami storm not nonsense. Also, recent times by clouds, and every geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, international environment can be described as the "left hand". United States strategic deployment to the Middle East, Israel's attack on freedom of expression and of Iran's missile test, are exacerbating geographical instability of oil prices rising, supporting up to the global economic recession, buried deep concern. Recently, the next election President Barack Obama has put words "will be tough means to block Iran nuclear threat"; small Bush also force row houses of pressure, to abolish the "United States native, offshore ban bans mining oil", to expand its own oil, mitigation increasingly fall in Washington petroleum inventory. United States acted has appeared the next global economic situation grim, seem to presage the Fourth Middle East oil crisis or oil war. In short, we have been in a perilous times, alarms have sounded, the greater the financial crisis is imminent, we must be vigilant, take weiwo. As of today, in order to ensure the healthy development of Chinese economy, a Tribunal should be comprehensive examination of China's financial system and operational mechanism to reduce the risk of investment, increase the defense and settlement. At the same pace, slow down the interest rate control of currency appreciation, hedge dollarContinued to depreciate the risks to financial security. The second is to focus on the adjustment of the foreign exchange reserve structure, increase energy and strategic resource investment reserve to reduce the proportion holding us debt and risk. And speed up industrial upgrading and pricing reform, gradually release the oil, electricity and other energy prices. At the same time speeding up the reform of the financial and taxation systems, and increase the grass-roots people's financial transfer payments to counter inflationary pressures, the protection of domestic demand, resolve its own economic risks.